CDD Spike Detection

📊 What is a CDD Spike?

🔍 What is CDD?

CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) is a blockchain metric that shows when long-held coins move.

• The longer a coin stays unmoved, the more weight it has in CDD.

• If a wallet that hasn't moved funds in a long time suddenly transfers coins, the CDD value jumps.

In short: big old wallets waking up = high CDD.

---

🚨 What is a CDD Spike?

A CDD spike means an unusually large number of dormant coins moved in a short time. These spikes often hint that:

• Long-term holders are reacting to something

• Big players might be taking action before a market shift

But how do we tell the difference between normal movement and a spike?

---

📐 How Do We Detect a Spike?

To avoid false signals, we only mark a spike if it’s far above the normal level.

We calculate:

CDD value > average + 2 × standard deviation

This means:

• We find the average of recent CDD values

• We calculate how much values typically vary (standard deviation)

• If a new CDD value is way higher than normal, it’s marked as a spike

This method highlights rare, strong moves — not noise.

---

🧮 What is Standard Deviation (In Simple Terms)?

It tells us how “spread out” the numbers are.

• If most CDD values are close to the average, std is small

• If values swing wildly, std is big

We mark a spike when the value is more than 2× std above the average. Why 2? Because it usually means 95% of values are below it.

So if something goes above that, it’s special.

---

📈 How to Read the Graph and Use It

The CDD Spike Heatmap shows:

• 🟠 Orange bars = CDD value at that time

• ⭐ Black stars = when a spike is detected

• 📈 Green line = BTC price from Binance

• 💬 Text labels = how BTC moved 6 hours after the spike

What You Should Watch:

• Look for a black star above a high orange bar

• Check the label → did price go up or down afterward?

• Was this behavior repeated in other spikes?

This gives you an edge:

If 4 of the last 5 spikes were followed by a BTC drop, the next spike may signal a smart-exit moment.

You don't need to guess — the data shows it.

---

🧠 Why Should You Care?

Because these spikes can act as early signals. After a spike, we watch:

• What BTC price does in the next few hours

• Does the market react?

If it often does, we have a powerful warning tool.

---

🧭 Summary for Users

• ✅ CDD spike = long-dormant wallets moving suddenly

• ✅ We detect spikes using smart math (mean + 2×std)

• ✅ Only rare, meaningful events are shown

• ✅ Useful to spot shifts before they show up in price

• ✅ Follow the chart: spike → check reaction → spot patterns

You don’t need to know the math — just follow the signals. When you see a spike, stay alert.

This is like watching the big players whisper — before they shout.