CDD Spike Detection
📊 What is a CDD Spike?
🔍 What is CDD?
CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) is a blockchain metric that shows when long-held coins move.
The longer a coin stays unmoved, the more weight it has in CDD.
If a wallet that hasn't moved funds in a long time suddenly transfers coins, the CDD value jumps.
In short: big old wallets waking up = high CDD.
🚨 What is a CDD Spike?
A CDD spike means an unusually large number of dormant coins moved in a short time. These spikes often hint that:
Long-term holders are reacting to something
Big players might be taking action before a market shift
But how do we tell the difference between normal movement and a spike?
📐 How Do We Detect a Spike?
To avoid false signals, we only mark a spike if it’s far above the normal level.
We calculate:
This means:
We find the average of recent CDD values
We calculate how much values typically vary (standard deviation)
If a new CDD value is way higher than normal, it’s marked as a spike
This method highlights rare, strong moves — not noise.
🧮 What is Standard Deviation (In Simple Terms)?
It tells us how “spread out” the numbers are.
If most CDD values are close to the average, std is small
If values swing wildly, std is big
We mark a spike when the value is more than 2× std above the average. Why 2? Because it usually means 95% of values are below it.
So if something goes above that, it’s special.
📈 How to Read the Graph and Use It
The CDD Spike Heatmap shows:
🟠 Orange bars = CDD value at that time
⭐ Black stars = when a spike is detected
📈 Green line = BTC price from Binance
💬 Text labels = how BTC moved 6 hours after the spike
What You Should Watch:
Look for a black star above a high orange bar
Check the label → did price go up or down afterward?
Was this behavior repeated in other spikes?
This gives you an edge:
If 4 of the last 5 spikes were followed by a BTC drop, the next spike may signal a smart-exit moment.
You don't need to guess — the data shows it.
🧠 Why Should You Care?
Because these spikes can act as early signals. After a spike, we watch:
What BTC price does in the next few hours
Does the market react?
If it often does, we have a powerful warning tool.
🧭 Summary for Users
✅ CDD spike = long-dormant wallets moving suddenly
✅ We detect spikes using smart math (mean + 2×std)
✅ Only rare, meaningful events are shown
✅ Useful to spot shifts before they show up in price
✅ Follow the chart: spike → check reaction → spot patterns
You don’t need to know the math — just follow the signals. When you see a spike, stay alert.
This is like watching the big players whisper — before they shout.
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